Liquidity & Technical
Liquidity & Technical
PGHN is institutionally tradeable at normal mandate size — a CHF 22.3B Swiss equity turning over roughly three-quarters of float annually with CHF 91M of daily traded value clears a 5% position for funds up to about CHF 1.8B AUM inside five sessions — but the tape is decisively bearish: price sits 11.5% below the 200-day, the most recent 50/200 cross was a death cross in April 2025 that has not reverted, and shares are pinned in the bottom fifth of the 52-week range. The single feature that matters most is that every meaningful volume spike of the past two years closed red — distribution, not accumulation.
Portfolio implementation verdict
5-day capacity at 20% ADV (CHF M)
Max issuer position in 5d (% mcap)
Fund AUM for 5% weight (CHF M)
ADV 20d as % of market cap
Technical scorecard (-6 to +6)
Liquidity is fine; the tape is the constraint. A generalist long-only fund up to roughly CHF 1.8B AUM can run a 5% position cleanly. The problem is what you are buying: shares are in a confirmed downtrend, sub-200-day, with no momentum reversal yet. Patient accumulators have time — there is no execution urgency to chase.
Price snapshot
Last close (CHF)
YTD return (%)
1-year return (%)
Position in 52w range (%)
From all-time high (%)
The trend chart — full ten-year price with 50d / 200d SMA
Price is below the 200-day, and the 50-day is below the 200-day. A death cross fired on 2025-04-25 and has not reversed. The lifetime chart shows shares now sit roughly where they traded in late 2019 / early 2020 — five years of price appreciation has been unwound.
Caption. The ten-year view tells one story: a 2020–2021 melt-up from CHF 700 to CHF 1,650, a two-year base around CHF 1,000, a 2024 retest of the highs, and a clean downtrend since February 2025. Today's CHF 859 is below both moving averages and sub-200-day for 13 months running — this is a downtrend regime, not a correction inside an uptrend.
Relative performance — 3 years rebased to 100
No benchmark series is available in the staged data (no broad-market or sector ETF history loaded for this run), so we cannot show a direct line-by-line relative chart. The absolute path tells the story: rebased to May 2023, PGHN climbed to 162 by Feb-2025, then retraced to 100.6 today — essentially three full years of dead money, with a sharper trajectory than European financials peers over the same window.
Caption. A round-trip back to the May-2023 starting point, with the rollover beginning February 2025 — coincident with the broader cooling in private-markets fundraising and the April 2025 death cross.
Momentum — RSI(14) and MACD histogram (18 months)
Caption. RSI ended at 40.9 — neutral but trending lower — having failed to break above 70 in April 2026 (which would have signaled a fresh leg up). MACD histogram has just flipped negative again after a brief positive run, mirroring the failure of the recent rally to take out the 200-day. Near-term momentum is rolling over, not bottoming.
Volume, sponsorship, and volatility
Caption. The dominant signal is volume on the down days. Of the five largest volume spikes on record, four (2020-03-12 COVID, 2024-09-03 −9.2%, 2025-04-07 −9.7%, 2020-09-18) printed sharp losses — that is distribution, not accumulation. Realized vol at 28.8% sits between the 50th-percentile (21.3%) and 80th-percentile (32.5%) bands — the market is demanding a wider risk premium than during 2023's calm period, but is not yet pricing capitulation. The April 2025 vol spike to 55% remains the most recent stress event.
Institutional liquidity panel
This panel is for buy-side firms sizing a real position. The data manifest flags PGHN as "Illiquid / specialist only" because no issuer-level position from 0.5%–2% of market cap clears in five trading days at the 20%-ADV participation cap. From a fund-AUM perspective, the picture is materially better: at normal portfolio weights (2%–10%), the stock supports funds well into the billions. Read the verdict as "capacity-constrained for concentrated owners, fine for diversified mandates."
ADV & turnover
ADV 20d (shares)
ADV 20d (CHF M)
ADV 60d (shares)
ADV / market cap (%)
Annual turnover (%)
Fund-capacity table — how big a fund can run a position?
Liquidation runway — how long to exit an issuer-level position?
Daily-range proxy. Median 60-day daily range is 0.90% — well under the 2% impact-cost threshold, indicating intraday execution friction is low. Algo execution at VWAP or TWAP over multi-session windows should clip well inside that band.
Bottom line on liquidity. At 20% ADV participation, the largest issuer-level position that can be liquidated in five sessions is roughly 0.4% of market cap (CHF 89M) — not 0.5%, hence the manifest flag. At 10% ADV, that drops to 0.2% (CHF 45M). On the fund-portfolio axis, a generalist long-only running a 5% position weight has clean execution up to roughly CHF 1.8B AUM at 20% ADV, CHF 894M at 10% ADV. Funds materially larger than that — or concentrated owners eyeing 1%+ of the company — face real multi-week execution windows.
Technical scorecard
Stance — bearish on a 3–6 month horizon
Bearish. Aggregate scorecard is -5 of -6 — every dimension except volatility is negative. The tape confirms what a sober fundamental read of the private-markets asset managers already suggests: AUM growth is cooling, performance-fee earnings are compressing, and the multiple is de-rating along with the trend. Two levels will define the next leg:
- Above CHF 970 (the 200-day SMA): a daily close above this — ideally with confirming volume — would mark a real regime change and flip the trend score to neutral. A push through CHF 1,030 (the late-Jan-2026 high) would confirm the reversal.
- Below CHF 785 (the 52-week low): a break opens the path to CHF 700 / CHF 660 (mid-2022 lows), and would force a forensic re-read of the fundamental thesis. ATR(14) of CHF 13.7 means a typical week can carry CHF 50–70 of range — the cushion to support is only ~9%.
Liquidity is not the constraint; conviction is. The right tactical action is watchlist with limit orders at CHF 800 and CHF 760 rather than an at-market build. Patient accumulation over multiple weeks at 10% ADV is feasible for funds under CHF 900M (5% weight), and the daily-range profile keeps execution cost low — but there is no technical evidence yet that the downtrend has bottomed, and chasing here means catching a knife that the tape is still actively dropping.